Falling crime

Amidst everything else going on, you may have missed the latest FBI crime statistics report that crime fell across several key categories in 2022. The L.A. Times reported: 

Homicides in the U.S. dropped significantly in 2022 and have plummeted even faster this year, putting the country on track for one of the biggest declines in killing ever recorded, crime statistics show….. The decline goes beyond homicides: Violent crime overall ticked down in 2022 across the country, the FBI numbers showed, returning the U.S. pretty much to the level of 2019, before the COVID-19-era increase.

Insha Rahman of the Vera Institute shared some of her insights with me about how we should read this: 

1. The data busts the myth that crime increases are being driven by big cities. The decreases (in homicides) and increases (especially in property crimes) occurred fairly consistently across jurisdictions. Shaila Dewan's piece in the NYT makes this point clearly. 

2. The drop in homicides coincides with an unprecedented investment across the country—in big cities and suburban and rural areas too—in a more community-driven approach to violence and crisis. This trend started with pandemic recovery dollars and continues as jurisdictions incorporate CVI, mobile crisis response, and other civilian first responders into their public safety ecosystem.

This is fantastic news, though the impacts of the data are far from straightforward. First, this information will have a muted impact on public policy if people just don’t believe it, which is often the case. When news of falling crime rates contradicts public anxieties and fears, it may be dismissed or explained away.

Second, and related to the first, even if crime is going down across several key measures, crime is still looming too large in the lives of too many. For people who are experiencing crime, any amount is too much, and we need to stay clearly focused on solutions to reduce these numbers further, while ensuring that law enforcement and city services are focused on areas where they are most needed.

Third, the feelings of uncertainty and insecurity that have been triggered and encouraged by breathless media reporting will have ongoing negative effects. Safety and security are key pillars of any democratic society. Public discourse about fear and threat enables anti-democratic, authoritarian positions to take hold. 

One bright note to end on, from the L.A. Times: “There’s evidence, however, that even if public perceptions of crime remain at odds with reality, voters are less prone to support ‘lock them up’ as a solution.” This strikes me as a major evolution and something we should both watch closely and encourage. Given the data and the raging rhetoric over the past two years, we might have expected a repeat of the devastating 1994 Crime Bill. But that did not happen. Something is changing in the deep currents of public understanding, and we need to listen closely.