Criminal Justice Reform is Poised to be Popular
A new Gallup poll finds that for the first time since 2000, strengthening law enforcement as a solution to crime is losing support, while another one finds that the percentage of Americans who think crime is going up (which it is not!) is dropping substantially. Meanwhile, addressing social and economic problems is gaining popularity as the way to address crime (only 8% of Dems prefer adding law enforcement to addressing to social problems). This shift in attitudes is no doubt helped by historically low crime rates (currently the lowest since the 1960s - check the charts!).
Moreover, while Gallup surveys like the one above tend to show republicans answering in hardline fashion, I’m told by a colleague who does regular polling that “independents and republicans are overwhelmingly pro-reform on drugs, homelessness, and mental health related granular solutions when you explain it to them in terms of policy solutions like mobile crisis response, sobering centers, trauma centers, etc. When it comes to support for these programs, republicans are above water with us and sometimes 60-70+ percent, even when you ask them to make a forced choice between increasing support for law enforcement or these programs.”
This trend is born out in San Francisco, where Heather Knight (who was a leader of the anti-Chesa Boudin brigade) just wrote a glowing piece in the NYTimes about a new crisis stabilization center. When we get into the details around what non-police-non-jail responses look like, they turn out to be very popular across the board. Why? Because it turns out that prisons and jails are the most expensive, least effective solutions to problems. They are propped up by cynical political interests and crumble in the face of pretty much any other approach.
Election Day Lessons
This moment offers a strange duality. On the one hand, crime is markedly down, and support for prison reform continues to grow. On the other hand, rising authoritarianism in the U.S. is going to bleed over into this space. Not only does it have a rapidly expanding carceral apparatus, along with secret ‘domestic terrorist’ lists, but indirectly it can make democrats feel like they don’t have political capital to spend.
Indeed, some democrats are claiming that the way to fight Trump is to advocate for punitive policies and increased police power (in some cases because that’s what they really want anyways), positions which directly feed right back into Trump’s authoritarian politics. This 90s playbook is getting tired, but 90s leaders like Rahm Emmanuel (the former Chicago mayor who disgraced himself by covering up the murder of teenager Laquon McDonald) are clinging to this strategy, even though the Dem base overwhelmingly does not support that: “just 8% of Democrats prefer emphasizing increased law enforcement rather than addressing socioeconomic problems as the better general solution to crime.”
But something interesting happened on election day last month. Not only did democrats have a blowout night, winning contests around the country and massively improving their margins, but they won despite the fact that voters continue to say they trust Republicans more to handle crime.
Why? Because the economy is far more salient right now than crime. In Virginia, 49% of voters said the economy was the most important issue, whereas 5% said that crime was most important. Jeff Asher noted that perceptions of crime are coming closer to reality.
Voters may have opinions on crime control when asked, but they aren’t going into the voting both with crime top of mind. That’s what happens when crime rates fall this fast and when high-profile candidates like Zohran Mamdani lead with affordability rather than crime and safety.
Election Day Results
Below is the rundown on the top criminal justice results. While I don’t think we are going to elect our way out of authoritarianism, I do think that we must have momentum in order to get out of this pit. So these wins feel excellent, and send a great signal!
Prosecutors:
Larry Krasner won a third term for Philadelphia, PA by more than 50 percentage points.
Alvin Bragg won a second term for Manhattan DA by 53 points.
Stephanie Morales won a third term in Portsmouth, VA by more than 30 points.
Jay Jones won a first term as VA Attorney General, beating Trump darling and anti-reform champion Jason Miyares by 6 points and nearly 200,000 votes.
Ramin Fatehi won a second term in Norfolk, VA after beating a Republican-backed primary opponent who outspent him 4:1.
Shannon Jones won a first term in Newport News, VA after beating a 30 year incumbent.
Erika Evans won a first term as City Attorney in Seattle, WA against tough on crime Republican incumbent, Ann Davidson. Evans won 63% of the vote.
And for the first time in 50 years, a democrat won the DA race in Bucks County, PA. While Joe Khan didn’t run as a progressive reformer, we expect him to be good on youth justice.
Others:
Zohran Mamdani, you won’t need reminding, won the New York City mayor’s race in spectacular fashion. Here are his positions on closing the Rikers Island jail complex.
Exonerated former prisoner Calvin Duncan, author of “The Jailhouse Lawyer”, won a very hard-fought race to be clerk of court in New Orleans, where he will do court and election oversight. His words: “Tonight is a dream that’s been forty years in the making… I hope that all those people who died in prison because we couldn’t get their records are looking down now. I hope they’re proud of me. We never stopped fighting for each other’s rights, and I will never stop fighting for yours. Thank you for this privilege.”
Danny Ceisler won the sheriff’s race in Bucks County, PA, pledging to halt cooperation with ICE.
A public defender won a judicial race in upstate NY. The campaign relied on Scrutinize’s data on the incumbent’s record of excessive sentences.
In Seattle, Erika Evans won the City Attorney race. She pledged to partner with LEAD and “prioritize housing, services and addiction treatment to those who end up perennially caught up in Seattle’s criminal legal system.” Bolts has the rundown.
Good news on which we can act. Thank you